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US Grand Prix betting preview

November 16th, 2013

Red Bull’s incredible dominance of the second half of the season continued in style in Austin, Texas last night, as Sebastian Vettel and Mark Webber locked out the front row with a full 7/10ths of a second in hand from the nearest rival team. The bookies have reacted of course, installing Vettel at no longer than 1/4 to win his eighth successive race - and we certainly won’t be disagreeing with that.

Mark Webber has been rather less successful and less lucky of course, but he has banked second places in 2 of his last 3 starts and looks extremely well placed to do so once again. He’s also a short priced favourite to score a podium finish at just 4/11 (Paddy Power), but we wouldn’t recommend steaming into that price about a man who has finished in the top three just 6 times this season - compare that with Vettel who has managed it 15 times, which says everything about what a weak season it has been for Webber.

Instead we shall look a little further down the order, and it looks worth backing Romain Grosjean instead at 8/11 (Paddy Power & Ladbrokes). The Frenchman has really profited from Kimi Raikonen taking his eye off the prize in recent weeks and has guided his Lotus to a podium finish in three of his last four starts. He’s collected the vast majority of his points in the latter part of the season, so really is a genuine form drive, and should benefit from having Nico Hulkenberg and Lewis Hamilton directly behind him on the grid, protecting him from the threat from Fernando Alonso.

In the points markets, the phenomenal performances of Vallteri Bottas throughout the weekend so far have seen the bookmakers install him at odds-on prices to collect his first points of the season, but we think this could open up some other opportunities for a couple of drivers behind him.

Bottas has been great throughout Friday and Saturday, but he’s yet to finish a race better than 12th, and we’ll opt for Felipe Massa making a recovery from his poor qualifying slot instead. Massa will move up one place to 14th on the grid owing to a penalty handed to Jenson Button, and the 6/4 with Bet365 looks fair about a man who has scored in eight consecutive races now, including two fourth places, and a sixth. Similarly Nico Rosberg should be able to finish in the top 10 at odds of 8/11 despite starting 13th, and we’ll be happy to follow the pair through the field as the race progresses.

The race gets underway at 7pm UK time, live on Sky Sports F1.

Romain Grosjean Podium Finish 8/11
Paddy Power & Ladbrokes
Filipe Massa Points Finish 6/4
Nico Rosberg
Points Finish

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