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Brazil v Chile betting preview

June 27th, 2014

Brazil are a best price of 8/13 with Bet365 to beat Chile in their last 16 match at the World Cup on Saturday. Chile, who finished as runners-up in Group B behind Holland after their 2-0 defeat to the Dutch, are a best price of 21/4 with BetVictor to cause what would be a huge upset at the Estadio Mineirao in Belo Horizonte. The draw is 16/5 with Bet365.

At 10/3 with BetVictor and Coral, Brazil remain the favourites to win the tournament, but they have looked heavily reliant on Neymar in reaching this stage. There have been concerns about their defence, which were heightened by a nervous first half display against Cameroon, while Mexico showed that by nullifying the threat of Neymar, Luis Felipe Scolari's side can be made to look toothless.

Despite those two issues, Brazil do possess the qualities to follow Holland's blueprint and see off Chile's challenge. Like the Dutch, the host nation can be devastating on the counter attack and they will attempt to draw Chile in and provide Neymar with space in which to operate on the break. Louis Van Gaal's tactics were spot on in the Group B decider, with Arjen Robben superb on the break.

Neymar, with four goals to his credit already, is a 7/2 chance (Paddy Power, Stan James, William Hill) to open the scoring, but Holland made the breakthrough against Chile with a header from a set piece and Brazil can also exploit the lack of height and quality at the heart of the Chilean defence, where Gonzalo Jara is partnered by the diminutive Gary Medel. David Luiz and Thiago Silva can both be menacing at corners and free-kicks and can each be backed at 33/1 to score the opening goal with Ladbrokes.

In a tournament full of goals and attacking play, Belo Horizonte has been host to some of the more lukewarm football. The last two matches have produced just a single goal - Lionel Messi's last minute winner for Argentina against Iran preceding the 0-0 draw between Costa Rica and England. It must be a factor that all four previous matches here have kicked off at 1pm local time, as this one does, when the weather is at its hottest. Those four games have produced a total of seven goals.

The goal expectancy is above average for this game, but if, as seems likely, Chile employ a holding midfielder to stifle Neymar in the manner Mexico did, we could see something approaching a repeat of that goalless game. Bet365 price the half time draw at 11/8.

That relatively high goals line also means there appears to be some value in the Correct Score betting. Brazil are 11/2 with Stan James to win 2-0, but BetVictor and Ladbrokes are all offering 15/2, with Ladbrokes quoting the same price for a 1-0 win for the favourites.

RECOMMENDED BETS
MARKETODDSBOOKMAKERS
Thiago Silva
First Goalscorer
33/1 Ladbrokes
David Luiz
First Goalscorer 33/1 Ladbrokes
Brazil 2-0 Correct Score 15/2 Ladbrokes
Draw Half-Time Result 11/8 Bet365

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