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Argentina v Belgium betting

July 3rd, 2014

Argentina take on Belgium at the Estadio Nacional de Brasilia at 5pm on Saturday and the game is live on ITV1.

Lionel Messi and co. are the bookmakers favourites and the best price you’ll get on them to win this quarter-final is 6/5 with Bet365, while Belgium are available at a top price of 14/5 with Ladbrokes and the draw at 23/10 with Bet365.

Traditionally, Argentina have outclassed Belgium - winning 3 of their 4 previous encounters and scoring 10 times in the process. But this Belgium side are better than many of the previous sides who have played Argentina and the betting reflects this to a certain extent.

Argentina have now made the World Cup quarter-finals 3 times in a row - but they lost both previous games. For Belgium, it’s the second time they have reached the last 8 - the last time was Mexico 86 when they eventually finished 4th, losing 2-0 to Argentina in the semis.

Belgium and Argentina are ranked number one and two in the ‘most shots’ category so far at this World Cup (83 and 80 respectively) and so a bet on Over 2.5 Goals would seem to be a decent price at 11/8 with BetVictor.

No side has a higher average possession percentage figure than Argentina at 64.3% but odds of 1/10 with 888sport on them having more ball possession than Belgium looks ridiculously short and the value bet here is on Belgium at 7/1 (in their Stats Bets markets).

If you like stats betting, it is interesting to note that Belgium’s Kevin De Bruyne delivered the final ball for a Belgian shot 10 times against the USA in the last round, and he looks overpriced at 7/2 with Ladbrokes to provide a goal assist at any time during this game.

Remarkably, all of Belgium’s seven goals in Brazil have been scored in the 70th minute or later and given they find it difficult to score early, a bet on Argentina to score first here at 4/5 with Paddy Power is also suggested.

Lionel Messi has netted four goals in Brazil and can be backed to score the first goal at 7/2 with BetVictor. Three of those four goals have been scored from outside the box and so we recommend another bet on him to score from outside the box at 4/1 with 888sport (in their Player Goals & Cards markets).

However, an each-way First Goalscorer bet is also strongly advised on Angel Di Maria as he achieved an all-time high number of shots in one World Cup game for an Argentinian player (12) against Switzerland, and is over priced at 10/1 with Bet365 to score first (8/1 with most bookmakers). Bet365 pay 1/3 odds for the place in this market - if your player scores at any time in regular time - of course, he scored the only goal of the game against the Swiss, albeit in extra-time.

RECOMMENDED BETS
MARKETODDSBOOKMAKERS
Over Over/Under 2.5 Goals 11/8 BetVictor
Belgium Most Time In Possession
7/1 888sport
Kevin De Bruyne
Anytime Assist 7/2 Ladbrokes
Argentina To Score First 4/5 Paddy Power
Lionel Messi First Goalscorer 7/2 BetVictor
Angel Di Maria (ew) First Goalscorer 10/1 Bet365*
Lionel Messi To Score from Outside Penalty Box 4/1 888sport

*Money back on losing bets if the game finishes 0-0 in regular time

Current Bookmaker Offers and Refunds

  • Goalscorer 2nd Chance: Refund of losing First Goalscorer bets, as a free bet up to £50, if your player scores the second goal - with William Hill

  • Bore Draw: Refund of ALL losing Correct Score, Half-Time/Full-Time and Scorecast bets on ANY football match that finishes 0-0 - with Bet365

  • Channel 4/1 offer - Back a winner at 4/1 or more in a race televised live on Channel 4 and get a free bet of the same stake on the next televised race. If your free bet also wins at odds of 4/1 or more, you also qualify for a free bet on the next televised race and so on - with Bet365

  • Premier League Late Loser Insurance: Refund of losing Correct Score & Scorecast bets, up to £25, if the bet is winning at the 85th minute - with Coral

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