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German Grand Prix 2014 betting

July 18th, 2014

As far as the betting world has been concerned, the lead up this week to the German GP has been all about a monster gamble on Marussia man Jules Bianchi. Whilst we shall almost certainly never know exactly how much was bet on the youngster last weekend, our well educated guess is actually not a great deal!

Bianchi has been backed in from 3000/1 to as short as 10/1 for a Podium Finish, from 2000/1 to just 3/1 for a Top 6 Finish and from 100/1 to as short as 4/9 for a Points Finish.

To see those sorts of movement, you’d usually need a tidal wave of money, but this gamble appears to have been nothing of the sort and rather, in our opinion, a giant snowball rolling down a hill getting bigger and bigger. The early movements were almost certainly a combination of four things - prices being a little too toppy about a man who has outperformed his machinery a couple of times this season; the threat of thunderstorms on Sunday in the long-range forecasts, the fact that he went quickest in the Silverstone test session, and finally the remote possibility that he might take over Raikkonen’s seat at Ferrari if the Finn didn’t recover from his heavy shunt.

Essentially, 1+1+1+1 = a massive gamble, which at first was probably shrewd, but very quickly passed shrewd and entered the world of lemmings. Ever play the old Amstrad game and put a blocker in the wrong place, leaving you helpless to stop all 100 of your lemmings fall off a cliff? Well that was what was happening from around midnight on Sunday until mid-morning on Monday.

No bookmaker wanted to be the one who left up the top price on a Marussia man in a Ferrari, so regardless of how ficticious they believed the move to be, they were professionally compelled to treat the market with caution and shorten to every bet as everyone tried to maintain bottom price in the market.

Anyway, enough of all that. Lets kick off with our first bet for this Sunday, and we reckon Marussia man Jules Bianchi could be an interesting price to finish in the points this weekend at 25/1!

The point being, everything has its price, and with potentially poor weather about, the 100/1 with BetVictor looks very reasonable. Bianchi has already demonstrated himself as a potential star of the future and those types generally make their mark in poor cars when the weather turns. Think back to Vettel in the Toro Rosso and Senna at a variety of tracks. This could well be Bianchi’s week for a second points haul of the season.

Our second bet will be Nico Hulkenberg to finish inside the Top 6 - a feat he’s managed six times in the opening nine races. It’s a 15/8 shot and given that Force India are expected to suffer less impact by the removal of the FRIC suspension systems from all cars this weekend than the rest of the field, it would be no surprise to see him grab another consistent result. At 16/1 with William Hill we’ll also go with a Podium Finish for the Force India man and pray Mercedes have a poor weekend to improve our chances of a return.

RECOMMENDED BETS
MARKETODDSBOOKMAKERS
Jules Bianchi
Points Finish 100/1 BetVictor
Nico Hulkenberg Top 6 Finish 15/8 Paddy Power
Nico Hulkenberg
Podium Finish 16/1 William Hill
BetVictor
William HillPaddy Power
£25 free bet £25 free bet £50 free bet

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