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Scottish Referendum Odds

September 15th, 2014

On Thursday up to 4 million Scots will go to the polls in an historic referendum to decide if Scotland becomes a fully independent country, or remains part of the United Kingdom.

Despite a series of polls over the weekend indicating that the 'Yes' and 'No' campaigns are in effect neck and neck, bookmakers seem sure that it will be a 'No' vote come the 18th.

No to independence 1/4 Ladbrokes
Yes to independence
10/3 Bet365 
45-50% 11/8
40-45% 12/5
50-55% 4/1
40% or less 6/1
55% or more 9/1

Click here to visit Bet365. Their Scottish Referendum odds can be found under Specials > United Kingdom > Political Referendums 2014.

These odds have shifted from last week when momentum appeared to be with the 'Yes' campaign fronted by SNP leader Alex Salmond. Just last Wednesday the best odds you could find on a 'Yes' vote were 15/8, which represents a 35% probability, but you can now back 'Yes' at 10/3, which represents just a 23% chance.

Despite this, all the polls suggest that the vote will be extremely close and odds of 11/8 with Bet365 that the 'No' vote will be in the region of 45-50% seem reasonable.

++ UPDATE - THURSDAY 18th ++

Polling stations opened at 7am this morning and bookmakers are offering odds on the referendum result until 10pm, when polling stations close. Today odds on a 'Yes' vote have drifted even further with Bet365 now offering the best price of 4/1, which represents just a 20% chance, despite all of the final polls indicating that the result is still too close to call:

No to independence 2/9 Ladbrokes
Yes to independence
4/1 Bet365
Bet365 Ladbrokes
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