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ATP World Tour Finals 2014 tips

November 7th, 2014

The ATP World Tour Finals gets underway on Sunday and motivation is sure to be high amongst the eight man field - despite the tournament coming at the end of a long hard season. $6.5m in prize money ensures that, while there are also 1500 World Rankings points available, which can make a big difference to seedings in next years Slams.

The courts have been slightly slower than the average ATP Indoor average over the past few seasons, but being an indoor tournament they are still rapid enough and should suit those who have enjoyed good form on similar courts over the past season or two.

Novak Djokovic is the standout performer on the surface of course so it’s little surprise to see the Serb quoted at odds-on to win this event for the third straight year and fourth in his career. He’s enjoyed another stellar year, and will be the man to beat this time around.

More surprising is the fact that Roger Federer - a man with just a 75% surface record over the past two years, is such a clear second favourite at 4/1, and finding a way to oppose that price could be a good route to riches this year.

On our ratings, Federer is only the fifth best player on the surface, with the likes of Kei Nishikori performing at an arguably higher level on the quick indoor courts, yet is offered at five times the price of his Group B rival.

Federer's 75% record might sound decent, but to it into perspective, Djokovic has been up at 94%, Nishikori 90% and Marian Cilic 81%. Add in Andy Murray’s 80% and you begin to get the picture.

Group B looks to first place to strike therefore, and we reckon the 11/8 top price about Federer wining that section is a price based more on reputation than up-to-date reality - and we’ll be taking the 9/5 available on Kei Nishikori shocking Murray or Federer to qualify from the group.

With the notion that Federer is past his best on this surface, we’ll also take a speculative punt on a Murray/Nishikori dual forecast at appealing odds of 11/2, as Raonic looks unlikely to trouble his rivals.

In Group A, Djokovic is short enough at 4/9, but the dual forecast of Djokovic and Cilic prevailing looks decent value at 6/4. We really fancy Cilic could get the better of Berdych when the pair meet, and in this group that could easily dictate the outcome of this forecast market - especially when Wawrinka looks well under the cosh and should finish bottom of the group given his poor surface record (47% over past two seasons).

Novak Djokovic
Tournament Winner
 5/6 Bet365, Sky Bet & BetVictor
Kei Nishikori
To Qualify - Group A
 9/5 BetVictor
Murray / Nishikori Dual Forecast - Group B 11/2 Sky Bet
Djokovic / Cilic
Dual Forecast - Group A
 6/4 Sky Bet
Sky BetBetVictor
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