Brazilian Grand Prix 2014 tips
With second practice at Interlagos interrupted three times by red flags on Friday, bookmakers and punters alike have been left guessing a little at who might have the best chance of mixing and matching it with Mercedes in qualifying, and the race on Sunday
The Red Bull of Daniel Ricciardo looked its usual consistent self, while both Williams cars posted some decent looking long run efforts, despite having the session interrupted. Times meant little though, and we are going to fall back on some good old gut feel for this race - and hope that is enough to come out ahead of the bookies.
The first thing to note is that the track is a fast flowing circuit, with a dog leg straight - something which should suit Red Bull in sector two, but play into the hands of Williams in the first and third sections. A high top speed for the latter is bound to give them a shot of a decent finish, as they will have a great chance of defending any positions they make up.
The second thing to note is that the weather looks highly changeable over the weekend, with a strong chance of rain during qualifying and a realistic chance of a wet race to follow on Sunday.
Saturday looks difficult to to call; the Mercedes has been dominant in every qualifying sessions except Austria this season, and we'd hoped to support Nico Rosberg this week given his relative success on Saturday's in recent months, but at odds of 5/4, it looks like the bookmakers have finally caught up. If the weather comes to the rescue of the chasing pack, then its hard to say who is most likely to profit, and as such it makes sense to move straight onto Sunday.
Starting in the race winner market, if the heavens do open, Interlagos is far from a walk in the park and that could play into the hands of Ricciardo. With most of the book taken out by Hamilton and Rosberg, throwing the dice and backing the Aussie at 22/1 looks worth a play; he could well be the man to pick up the pieces if opportunities come knocking.
Further down the order, Kimi Raikkonen has the experience to finish in the top six, if perhaps not the car in usual conditions. The 4/1 available on a Top 6 Finish is long enough for a rain affected race, and we’d be happy to take the 7/2 if the top prices disappear.
Finally, into the points market, and again we should look to cast out net for the higher prices in hope of a shock outcome. Romain Grosjean stretched his legs in US GP, almost capturing a points finish, and the 5/1 on offer about him finally picking up his first points since Monaco shouldn't be ignored. With only 18 starters and bad weather, he's not the worst price this weekend.
Finally, we like Adrian Sutil at 11/1 with Bet365; the German looked strong in USA as well and while its been a fruitless season thus far, we could final see him put an end to that and collect some Sauber points this time out.
|Daniel Ricciardo (ew)
||To Win Outright||22/1||William Hill|
|Kimi Raikkonen||Top 6 Finish||4/1||Bet365|
|Romain Grosjean||Points Finish||5/1||William Hill|
|Adrian Sutil||Points Finish||11/1||Bet365|
|£200 free bet
||£25 free bet|