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Abu Dhabi Grand Prix 2014 tips

November 21st, 2014

All the talk ahead of the Abu Dhabi race on Sunday will be around the title showdown between Lewis Hamilton and Nico Rosberg. It will be a shame if double points becomes the determining factor for the season, and whilst the argument that the rules were there from the start is valid, it would be a hollow championship for the German.

That said, Rosberg is arguably one of the most talented drivers on the grid, and it would be an equally big shame if he were to reach the end of his career without a World Championship to his name - he'll certainly feel this is the one which got away if Hamilton can finish in the required position to add to his trophy cabinet.

If we want to make cash on this race however we need to move away from that speculation and get straight into the value.

In the Pole Market, Hamilton will find the title a lot easier to claim if he starts on the front of the grid, and odds of 4/5 with Paddy Power look fair game given his performance in P2 this morning. He was quick on the Super Softs on a single flying lap, and also performed well over the longer runs, looking to have about 3/10ths in hand over Rosberg. We’ll chance a small bet on Lewis at 4/5 in a two horse Saturday shoot-out.

Come race day, Red Bull look firmly in control in the race without Mercedes as it has so often become this campaign. While they ran shorter stints on the long-run simulations, they did appear to have as much as half a second or so on the next best cars, and that makes them look value in the Betting Without Mercedes market.

Ricciardo is 5/2 generally, and Vettel is 5/1 with Bet365 in that market, and with three places offered at 1/5 odds, you are getting fair each way value on the latter as well. We propose a win only bet on Ricciardo and an e/w play on Vettel at those prices.

Further back, Jean-Eric Vergne ran a particularly long run, but still turned in some highly consistent timings and might be in a position to try something different in terms of strategy in the race as a result. He’s 14/1 to score a top 6 finish and 5/6 to finish in the points. The car looks well set-up for this track, and we wouldn't put you off either.

Finally, Abu Dbahi is a circuit with plenty of run-off potential, so couple that with the fact the field is running at a reduced number, and the layout generally makes recoving stricken cars pretty straightforward, backing 'No Safety Car' looks a sound investment at 5/6 with BetVictor. We've got it a good few points shorter.

Lewis Hamilton Pole Position 4/5 Paddy Power
Daniel Ricciardo w/o Mercedes
5/2 Generally
Sebastian Vettel (ew) w/o Mercedes
Jean-Eric Vergne Top 6 Finish
Bet365 & Paddy Power
Jean-Eric Vergne Points Finish
5/6 Bet365 & Paddy Power
Safety Car?
5/6 BetVictor
Paddy PowerBetVictor
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