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Southampton v Man City tips

November 29th, 2014

Southampton take on Manchester City at St Mary’s Stadium on Sunday and the game is live on SkySports 1 from 1.30pm.

Despite Saints being one spot ahead of City in the league table, it’s the visitors who are favourites, with the best price you'll get being 7/5 with Bet365 and William Hill, while Southampton are available at 23/10 with BetVictor and the draw at 5/2 with Bet365.

But we believe this is one of those rare occasions when the layers have got it the wrong way around, as Southampton, playing at home and in form, should in our minds be favourites to win here. As such our number one bet is to back Southampton (+0.5) on the Asian Handicap at 5/7 with BetVictor - so you win if they win or draw.

Southampton have won six and lost none of their latest eight league games, while City continue to concede goals and it will be fascinating to see how the Southampton defence - which have conceded the fewest shots on target in the Premier League (25) - cope with a City attack that have recorded the most number of shots on target (76).

It is no secret how much City have relied on Sergio Aguero this season and if he plays this will be his 100th Premier League game. The Argentinian has now scored 14 goals in his last 12 games for City in all competitions and simply must be backed to do so again. Take Bet365's 6/5 on him scoring at any time.

For the hosts, we suggest a bet on Graziano Pelle to score first. The Italian has already scored 6 goals in his first Premier League season and was named the league's player of the month for September - you can back him each-way at 13/2 to score first with Paddy Power, who pay 1/3 odds for the 'place' in this market - if your player scores at any time.

City have scored on their travels every time this season, and we therefore feel that backing both teams to score at 8/13 with Bet365 is a safe bet, while we also like odds of 13/2 with William Hill on a 1-1 scoreline and 11/1 with Bet365 on a 2-1 home win.

Southampton (+0.5)
Asian Handicap 5/7
Graziano Pelle (ew)
First Goalscorer 13/2
Paddy Power
Sergio Aguero Anytime Goalscorer
6/5 Bet365
Both Teams To Score
Correct Score
13/2 William Hill
Southampton 2-1
Correct Score
11/1 Bet365
Paddy PowerBetVictorBet365William Hill
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