Crystal Palace v Liverpool tips
Crystal Palace take on Liverpool in the fifth round of the FA Cup on Saturday and the game is live on BTSport1 with kick-off at 5.30pm.
Despite playing at home, the Eagles are available at odds as big as 14/5 with Bet365, with Liverpool favourites at best odds of 11/10 with Paddy Power, while the draw can be backed at 13/5 - also with Bet365.
It’s slightly surprising to see Palace as big as 14/5 given their excellent recent record against Liverpool - the Reds have only beaten them once in their last five meetings and Palace won 3-1 at Selhurst Park earlier in the season. Indeed, Liverpool have only won on three of their last 13 trips to Selhurst Park (and none of the last six).
That said, when they arrived here back in November, it was during a very poor spell of form - they had won just two of their previous eight league games (D2, L4) and by contrast they have won six and drawn two of their last eight league games, including an impressive 3-2 win over Spurs on Tuesday.
This return to form has coincided with the return to the fold of Daniel Sturridge and given that the Reds have scored in 8 of their last 9 league games, we cannot see them not scoring at least once here.
But the arrival of Alan Pardew at Selhurst Park has also seen a revival in Palace's fortunes; indeed since he replaced Neil Warnock at the start of the year the Eagles have won five of their seven games in all competitions (D1, L1), including a 3-2 win at high-flying Southampton in the previous round.
Of course, Alan Pardew knows all about this competition (and facing Liverpool in particular), having twice been a losing finalist - firstly as a player with Palace in 1990, scoring the winner against Liverpool in the semi-final, and then as manager of West Ham in 2006 - going down to Liverpool in 'The Gerrard Final'.
Palace have themselves scored in nine of their 12 home games in the league this season and we suggest taking Ladbrokes' odds of 5/6 that both teams score on Saturday (Liverpool have kept only three clean sheets in their last 19 FA Cup games).
Dwight Gayle has scored three goals in his last two games against Liverpool at Selhurst Park and also scored against the Reds at Anfield last season, so we suggest backing him each-way to score first at best odds of 8/1 with Paddy Power, who offer 1/3 odds for the 'place' in this market - if your player scores any of the first five goals.
We also suggest backing Daniel Sturridge, who has scored nine goals in his last 11 FA Cup starts, to score first at a best price of 9/2 with Bet365.
Finally, given Liverpool's poor record here, we'll recommend backing a 2-1 Palace win at 12/1 with Betfred - not only is that the best price available, but Betfred also offer to refund losing Correct Score bets (up to £50) on all televised games that finish 1-1.
|Yes||Both Teams To Score||5/6||Ladbrokes|
|Dwight Gayle (ew)||First Goalscorer||8/1||Paddy Power|
|Daniel Sturridge||First Goalscorer||9/2||Bet365|
|Crystal Palace 2-1||Correct Score||12/1||Betfred*|
*Money back on losing bets, as a free bet of up to £50, if the game finishes 1-1
||£30 free bet||£50 free bet||£25 free bet|