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Man City v Newcastle tips

February 18th, 2015

Manchester City host Newcastle on Saturday, live on SkySports 1 from 5.30pm.

City are available at best odds of just 1/3 with Stan James, while Newcastle can be backed at 11/1 and the draw at 5/1 - both with BetVictor.

Those prices are no surprise given that Newcastle have not beaten City in the Premier League since the 2005, losing 14 of their subsequent 16 meetings (D2) - and you have to go back to 2000 to find the last time Newcastle won away at City in the league.

But Manuel Pellegrini's men have not been as imperious at home this season as in recent year's, winning just 7 of 12 matches (D3, L2) - last season they won 17 of their 19 at the Etihad Stadium (D1, L1) scoring an average of 3.3 goals per game, while they have scored just 21 goals at home so far this season (1.75 per game).

And Newcastle did beat City here in the Capital One Cup back in October - that 2-0 win was their first ever victory at the Etihad.

Given City's below average performances here this season, we fancy backing the visitors on the Asian Handicap market with a 1.5 goal start at odds of 21/20 with Bet365 - meaning they would have to lose by 2 goals for you to lose on the wager - with a saver on a 2-0 home win at 13/2 with Bet365 (the last 4 games between these sides have finished 2-0).

We will also chance our arm and back Newcastle in the 'Draw No Bet' market, as the 9/1 that Bet365 are offering looks plenty big enough (they are as short as 11/2 elsewhere).

As for First Goalscorer betting, we have to be with the most likely away player at big odds. That man here is Papiss Cisse at 12/1 with William Hill. Cisse’s 74 minutes per goal is the best minutes per goal ratio of any player in the Premier League this season and Hills also refund losing First Goalscorer bets should your player score the second goal of the game - or if the game finishes 0-0.

Yaya Toure has a fine goal scoring record against Newcastle, with 5 goals in his last 6 league games against the Magpies. We suggest backing him at 7/1 with Coral (9/2 elsewhere) to score first, as well as at 7/4 with Betfred to score at any time in the game.

Most of Newcastle's goals have come in the second half this season (a divisional high 71%), and given that City too have scored 31 of their 51 league goals in the second half (61%), we strongly suggest backing the second half to have most goals at a best 11/10 with Ladbrokes (just 17/20 with William Hill).

Newcastle (+1.5) Asian Handicap 21/20 Bet365
Manchester City 2-0 Correct Score 13/2 Bet365*
Newcastle Draw No Bet 9/1 Bet365
Pappis Cisse First Goalscorer 12/1 William Hill**
Yaya Toure First Goalscorer 7/1 Coral
Yaya Toure Anytime Goalscorer 7/4 Betfred
Second Half Highest Scoring Half 11/10 Ladbrokes

*Money back on losing bets, if the game finishes 0-0
**Money back on losing bets, up to £50, if your player scores 2nd or the game finishes 0-0

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Current Bookmaker Offers and Refunds

  • Goalscorer 2nd Chance: Refund of losing First Goalscorer bets, as a free bet up to £50, if your player scores the second goal - with William Hill

  • Bore Draw: Refund of ALL losing Correct Score, Half-Time/Full-Time and Scorecast bets on ANY football match that finishes 0-0 - with Bet365

  • Channel 4/1 offer - Back a winner at 4/1 or more in a race televised live on Channel 4 and get a free bet of the same stake on the next televised race. If your free bet also wins at odds of 4/1 or more, you also qualify for a free bet on the next televised race and so on - with Bet365

  • Premier League Late Loser Insurance: Refund of losing Correct Score & Scorecast bets, up to £25, if the bet is winning at the 85th minute - with Coral

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